Fintech Disruption Dynamics in Retail Banking

Models the competitive dynamics between incumbent banks and fintech challengers across payments, lending, and deposits.

Key findings

• Incumbent banks retain deposit dominance for 5-8 years but lose 40% of payments revenue within 3 years.
• Regulatory response timing determines whether fintechs capture 15% or 35% of lending market.
• Embedded finance partnerships create a reinforcing loop that accelerates fintech adoption by 2.1x.