Pandemic Preparedness Investment Returns

Models the cost-benefit dynamics of pandemic preparedness investment against the probability-weighted cost of future outbreaks.

Key findings

• Every $1 invested in preparedness yields $12-18 in avoided costs across a multi-year simulation horizon.
• Surveillance systems provide 8x higher ROI than stockpiling, due to the early-detection-response loop.
• International coordination failures reduce preparedness ROI by 40-60% through free-rider dynamics.