Remote Work Equilibrium and Urban Economic Restructuring

Simulates the long-run equilibrium of remote work adoption and its effects on commercial real estate and urban tax bases.

Key findings

• Remote work stabilizes at 25-35% of knowledge workers, not the 50%+ predicted during the pandemic.
• Commercial real estate values decline 15-25% in CBDs but redistribute to suburban office parks.
• Cities that convert office space to mixed-use recover 70% of lost tax revenue within 5 years.