Transit Ridership Death Spiral and Recovery Paths

Simulates the conditions under which transit systems enter a death spiral of declining ridership and service cuts.

Key findings

• Service frequency cuts below 15-minute headways trigger a reinforcing ridership decline loop.
• Fare-free policies increase ridership 15-25% but require sustained subsidy to avoid service quality erosion.
• Remote work reduces peak ridership 20-30% but increases off-peak demand if frequency is maintained.